Latest GDP Growth Estimate
2026-Q1
About this nowcast: This estimate synthesizes the latest available economic data to provide a real-time forecast of GDP growth. The chart below shows how the estimate has evolved as new data became available throughout the quarter.
Nowcast Evolution & Component Contributions
Component Details
| Date | Updated Series | Consumption | Equip. | Nonres. struct. | Intel. prop. | Res. Inv. | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Initialize | 2.25% | 1.23% | 4.28% | 6.31% | -2.88% | 5.34 | 0.39% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.75% |
| 2026-02-23 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip | 2.25% | 1.26% | 4.28% | 6.31% | -2.88% | 5.34 | 0.39% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.75% |
| 2026-02-26 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.25% | 1.26% | 4.28% | 6.31% | -2.88% | 8.30 | 0.39% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.80% |
| 2026-02-27 | Public construction, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.25% | 1.26% | -5.62% | 6.31% | -2.88% | 9.49 | -0.45% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.39% |
| 2026-03-02 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Net outlays, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending | 2.25% | 1.26% | -4.74% | 4.95% | -2.88% | 3.88 | -1.68% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.03% |
| 2026-03-05 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports | 2.25% | 1.26% | -4.74% | 4.95% | -2.88% | 3.88 | -1.68% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.03% |
| 2026-03-06 | Control retail sales, Services hours, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.97% | 1.26% | -4.74% | 3.82% | -2.88% | 4.83 | -1.21% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 0.88% |
| 2026-03-09 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales | 2.00% | 3.56% | -4.74% | 3.82% | -2.88% | 4.83 | -1.21% | 3.00% | 7.11% | 1.02% |
| 2026-03-13 | M. PCE, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Real goods exports, Services Exports, Government, Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Intel. property investment, Auto inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Housing starts, Housing permits | 1.95% | 2.49% | -5.85% | 3.77% | -0.10% | 5.70 | -1.24% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 1.96% |
| 2026-03-16 | IP, Gas and wells | 1.95% | 2.49% | -4.70% | 3.77% | -0.10% | 5.70 | -1.24% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 2.00% |
| 2026-03-18 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.95% | 3.62% | -4.70% | 3.77% | -0.10% | 5.27 | -1.24% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 2.05% |
| 2026-03-19 | TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Net outlays, Public construction, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 1.95% | 3.62% | -5.08% | 6.05% | -0.10% | 5.19 | -1.41% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 2.13% |
| 2026-03-23 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 1.95% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 6.05% | -8.20% | 5.19 | -0.00% | 9.10% | 3.76% | 2.21% |
| 2026-03-25 | Real goods Imports | 1.95% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 6.05% | -8.20% | 5.19 | -0.00% | 9.10% | 2.76% | 2.34% |
| 2026-03-30 | Housing permits | 1.95% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 6.05% | -8.20% | 5.19 | -0.00% | 9.10% | 2.76% | 2.34% |
| 2026-04-01 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 1.95% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 6.05% | -8.20% | -49.48 | -0.00% | 9.10% | 2.76% | 1.40% |
| 2026-04-03 | Control retail sales, Services hours, Real goods exports, Services Exports, Gov. payroll, Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Intel. property investment | 2.33% | 3.62% | 0.01% | 5.46% | -8.20% | -49.48 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.13% | -0.28% |
| 2026-04-06 | Vehicle sales, Vehicle sales | 2.04% | 5.70% | 0.01% | 5.46% | -8.20% | -49.48 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.13% | -0.37% |
| 2026-04-07 | AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip | 2.04% | 2.02% | 0.01% | 5.46% | -8.20% | -49.48 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.13% | -0.56% |
| 2026-04-09 | M. PCE, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Auto inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 1.62% | 2.17% | 0.21% | 5.45% | -8.43% | -18.90 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.14% | -0.19% |
| 2026-04-10 | Control retail sales, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | 0.21% | 5.45% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.14% | -1.29% |
| 2026-04-13 | Consumption, Equipment. Investment, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Inventories, Nonres. structures investment, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | 0.21% | 5.45% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.05% | 6.62% | 16.14% | -1.29% |
| 2026-04-14 | Consumption, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, ComputerNetShip, Exports, Net outlays, Public construction, Imports, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending, Res. Investment | 0.86% | 5.73% | 0.11% | 1.87% | -8.43% | -65.27 | -0.11% | 6.62% | 16.14% | -1.50% |
Understanding the Nowcast
The GDP nowcast provides an estimate of current-quarter economic growth before official statistics are released. It combines data from various economic indicators including:
- Consumer spending and retail sales
- Business investment
- Housing market activity
- Inventory changes
- Government expenditure
- International trade (exports & imports)
- Industrial production
- Employment data