Latest GDP Growth Estimate
2026-Q2
About this nowcast: This estimate synthesizes the latest available economic data to provide a real-time forecast of GDP growth. The chart below shows how the estimate has evolved as new data became available throughout the quarter.
Nowcast Evolution & Component Contributions
Component Details
| Date | Updated Series | Consumption | Equip. | Nonres. struct. | Intel. prop. | Res. Inv. | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Initialize | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -8.48% | 33.78 | 1.46% | 26.02% | 4.56% | 4.94% |
| 2026-05-04 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -8.48% | 35.00 | 1.46% | 26.02% | 4.56% | 4.96% |
| 2026-05-05 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.67% | 4.17% | -7.22% | 6.67% | -2.74% | 35.00 | 1.46% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.33% |
| 2026-05-07 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.67% | 4.17% | -6.84% | 6.67% | -2.74% | 35.00 | -0.69% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 2.96% |
| 2026-05-08 | Services hours, Gov. payroll, Intel. property investment | 2.67% | 4.17% | -6.84% | 7.35% | -2.74% | 35.00 | -0.24% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.08% |
| 2026-05-13 | Net outlays, Public construction, Intel. property investment, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres Construction spending | 2.67% | 4.17% | -6.75% | 9.25% | -2.74% | 30.69 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.16% |
| 2026-05-14 | Vehicle sales, Control retail sales, Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.92% | 4.17% | -6.75% | 9.25% | -2.74% | 32.23 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.36% |
| 2026-05-15 | Gas and wells | 2.92% | 4.17% | -7.57% | 9.25% | -2.74% | 32.23 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.33% |
| 2026-05-21 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 2.92% | 4.17% | -7.57% | 9.25% | -6.07% | 32.23 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.63% | 3.20% |
| 2026-05-28 | Vehicle sales, IP, Vehicle sales, TotalNetShipments, CoreNetShipments, AircraftNetShip, ComputerNetShip, Exports, Government, Imports, Intel. property investment, Nonfarm real IVA adjusted, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors), Nonres. structures investment, Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.48% | 3.10% | -7.20% | 4.23% | -5.07% | 29.55 | 0.02% | -0.19% | -1.62% | 2.88% |
| 2026-05-29 | Real goods exports, Real goods Imports, Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Advance inventories (Subsectors) | 2.48% | 3.10% | -7.20% | 4.23% | -5.07% | -32.00 | 0.02% | 27.11% | 14.99% | 2.36% |
| 2026-06-01 | Public construction, Nonres Construction spending, Res. construction spending | 2.48% | 3.10% | -2.10% | 4.23% | 7.49% | -32.00 | -0.09% | 27.11% | 14.99% | 2.96% |
Understanding the Nowcast
The GDP nowcast provides an estimate of current-quarter economic growth before official statistics are released. It combines data from various economic indicators including:
- Consumer spending and retail sales
- Business investment
- Housing market activity
- Inventory changes
- Government expenditure
- International trade (exports & imports)
- Industrial production
- Employment data