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A simple nowcaster based on a large range of monthly indicator models for each GDP expenditure component that combines them by weighting them based on their out-of-sample forecast performance. Nowcast expressed at an annualized rate. Does not reflect the views of any individual or institution.
| Date | Updates | GDP Nowcast | Consumption | Non-Res. Investment | Res. Investment | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-08-04 | -26.7 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.4 | 1.2 | -11.0 | 1.3 | |
| 1 | 2025-08-05 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | -26.7 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.4 | 1.2 | -11.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2025-08-05 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | -26.7 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2025-08-05 | Real goods Imports | -26.7 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.0 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 2025-08-06 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | -26.7 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | 1.3 |
| 5 | 2025-08-06 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | -26.5 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | -0.7 |
| 6 | 2025-08-11 | Vehicle sales | -26.4 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | -0.7 |
| 7 | 2025-08-11 | Vehicle sales | -26.2 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | -0.7 |
| 8 | 2025-08-14 | Services Imports | -26.4 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 9 | 2025-08-14 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | -26.4 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 10 | 2025-08-14 | Services Imports | -26.4 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 11 | 2025-08-14 | Net outlays, Public construction | -26.3 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 12 | 2025-08-14 | Advance inventories | -20.4 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 13 | 2025-08-15 | Control retail sales | -20.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 14 | 2025-08-15 | Real goods exports | -20.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 15 | 2025-08-15 | Real goods Imports | -20.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 16 | 2025-08-15 | IP | -20.1 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 17 | 2025-08-15 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 0.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 18 | 2025-08-19 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -3.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 19 | 2025-08-25 | Housing permits | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -2.9 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 20 | 2025-08-25 | Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 0.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 21 | 2025-08-26 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 22 | 2025-08-29 | GDP revision | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 23 | 2025-08-29 | M. PCE, Consumption | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 24 | 2025-08-29 | Res Invesment | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 25 | 2025-08-29 | Non-res Invesment | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 26 | 2025-08-29 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Exports | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -8.8 | 1.0 |
| 27 | 2025-08-29 | Real goods Imports, Imports | 0.5 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 28 | 2025-08-29 | Government | 0.4 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.4 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 29 | 2025-08-29 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Inventories | -79.7 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -7637.6 | 1.4 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 30 | 2025-08-29 | Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | -73.2 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6517.2 | 1.4 | -8.8 | 10.8 |