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A simple nowcaster based on a large range of monthly indicator models for each GDP expenditure component that combines them by weighting them based on their out-of-sample forecast performance. Nowcast expressed at an annualized rate. Does not reflect the views of any individual or institution.
| Date | Updates | GDP Nowcast | Consumption | Non-Res. Investment | Res. Investment | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-02-04 | -0.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | -4.7 | 18.8 | |
| 1 | 2025-02-05 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | 0.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 18.8 |
| 2 | 2025-02-05 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 1.1 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 3 | 2025-02-07 | Services hours | 0.7 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 4 | 2025-02-07 | Gov. payroll | 0.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 5 | 2025-02-10 | Vehicle sales | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 6 | 2025-02-10 | Vehicle sales | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 7 | 2025-02-13 | Control retail sales | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 8 | 2025-02-13 | Services Exports | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 9 | 2025-02-13 | Services Imports | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 10 | 2025-02-13 | Control retail sales | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 11 | 2025-02-13 | Durable goods ship., Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 12 | 2025-02-13 | Services Exports | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 13 | 2025-02-13 | Services Imports | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 14 | 2025-02-13 | Net outlays, Public construction | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 15 | 2025-02-13 | Advance inventories | 0.3 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 16 | 2025-02-14 | Control retail sales | 0.0 | 1.7 | -0.6 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 11.9 |
| 17 | 2025-02-14 | Real goods exports | -0.0 | 1.7 | -0.6 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.9 |
| 18 | 2025-02-14 | Real goods Imports | 0.0 | 1.7 | -0.6 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 19 | 2025-02-14 | IP | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 20 | 2025-02-14 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 21 | 2025-02-19 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 7.8 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 22 | 2025-02-26 | Housing permits | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 7.5 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 23 | 2025-02-26 | Houses sold , Res. construction spending | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 24 | 2025-02-28 | GDP revision | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 25 | 2025-02-28 | M. PCE, Consumption | 0.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 26 | 2025-02-28 | Res Invesment | 0.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 27 | 2025-02-28 | Durable goods ship., Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-res Invesment | 0.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 11.8 |
| 28 | 2025-02-28 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Exports | 0.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 11.8 |
| 29 | 2025-02-28 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Imports | -6.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 30 | 2025-02-28 | Government | -6.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 | -0.3 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 31 | 2025-02-28 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Inventories | -6.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 32 | 2025-02-28 | Vehicle sales | -6.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 33 | 2025-02-28 | Vehicle sales | -6.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 34 | 2025-02-28 | Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | -7.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 | -9.9 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 35 | 2025-03-04 | Res. construction spending | -7.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -9.9 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 36 | 2025-03-04 | Durable goods ship., Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | -7.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -9.9 | 2.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 37 | 2025-03-04 | Public construction | -7.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -9.9 | 1.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 38 | 2025-03-05 | Durable goods ship., Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | -7.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -9.9 | 1.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 39 | 2025-03-05 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | -6.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -3.9 | 77.5 |
| 40 | 2025-03-06 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | -6.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 77.5 |
| 41 | 2025-03-06 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | -4.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 55.0 |
| 42 | 2025-03-08 | Vehicle sales, Services hours | -4.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 55.0 |
| 43 | 2025-03-08 | Housing starts, Housing permits, Houses sold, Res. construction spending | -4.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 55.0 |
| 44 | 2025-03-08 | different series used | -4.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 55.0 |
| 45 | 2025-03-08 | Gov. payroll | -4.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 55.0 |
| 46 | 2025-03-08 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports, Imports | -0.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 20.7 |
| 47 | 2025-03-18 | Control retail sales | -1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 20.7 |
| 48 | 2025-03-18 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | -1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | 20.7 |
| 49 | 2025-03-18 | Net outlays, Public construction | -1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.7 |
| 50 | 2025-03-18 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | -0.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.7 |
| 51 | 2025-03-18 | Housing starts, Housing permits, Res. construction spending | -0.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.7 |
| 52 | 2025-03-18 | Real goods Imports | -0.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 53 | 2025-03-18 | IP | -0.3 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 54 | 2025-03-25 | Housing permits | -0.3 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 55 | 2025-03-25 | Houses sold, Res. construction spending | -0.5 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 56 | 2025-03-26 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | -1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 57 | 2025-03-28 | GDP revision | -0.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 58 | 2025-03-28 | M. PCE, Consumption | -1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 59 | 2025-03-28 | Res Invesment | -1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 60 | 2025-03-28 | Non-res Invesment | -1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 20.8 |
| 61 | 2025-03-28 | Real goods exports, Exports | -0.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 20.8 |
| 62 | 2025-03-28 | Real goods Imports, Imports | -5.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 63 | 2025-03-28 | Government | -5.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 30.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 64 | 2025-03-28 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Inventories | -6.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | -8.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 65 | 2025-03-28 | Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | -5.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 21.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 66 | 2025-03-28 | Vehicle sales | -5.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 21.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 67 | 2025-03-28 | Vehicle sales | -5.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 21.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 68 | 2025-04-02 | Res. construction spending | -5.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 69 | 2025-04-02 | Non-residential construction | -5.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 70 | 2025-04-02 | Public construction | -5.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 71 | 2025-04-02 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | -5.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 72 | 2025-04-02 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | -5.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 66.9 |
| 73 | 2025-04-03 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | -5.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 66.9 |
| 74 | 2025-04-03 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | -3.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 45.0 |
| 75 | 2025-04-03 | Real goods Imports | -2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 76 | 2025-04-04 | Services hours | -2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 77 | 2025-04-04 | Services hours | -2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 78 | 2025-04-04 | Gov. payroll | -2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 79 | 2025-04-07 | Vehicle sales | -2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 80 | 2025-04-07 | Vehicle sales | -2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 81 | 2025-04-11 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | -2.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 82 | 2025-04-11 | Net outlays, Public construction | -2.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 83 | 2025-04-11 | Advance inventories | -1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 28.7 |
| 84 | 2025-04-15 | Real goods exports | -1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 28.7 |
| 85 | 2025-04-15 | Real goods Imports | -2.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 29.8 |
| 86 | 2025-04-16 | Control retail sales | -2.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 29.8 |
| 87 | 2025-04-16 | IP | -2.0 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 21.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 29.8 |
| 88 | 2025-04-16 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | -2.0 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 23.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 29.8 |
| 89 | 2025-04-17 | Housing starts, Housing permits | -2.0 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 23.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 29.8 |