A simple nowcaster based on a large range of monthly indicator models for each GDP expenditure component that combines them by weighting them based on their out-of-sample forecast performance. Nowcast expressed at an annualized rate. Does not reflect the views of any individual or institution.
| Date | Updates | GDP Nowcast | Consumption | Non-Res. Investment | Res. Investment | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-05-02 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.1 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | |
| 1 | 2025-05-02 | Services hours | 2.3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.1 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 2025-05-02 | Gov. payroll | 2.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.1 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| 3 | 2025-05-02 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 2.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.1 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| 4 | 2025-05-02 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 2.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| 5 | 2025-05-06 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | 2.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| 6 | 2025-05-06 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 2.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| 7 | 2025-05-06 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 1.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| 8 | 2025-05-12 | Vehicle sales | 1.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| 9 | 2025-05-12 | Vehicle sales | 1.9 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| 10 | 2025-05-15 | Control retail sales | 1.3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| 11 | 2025-05-15 | Services Imports | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 12 | 2025-05-15 | Control retail sales | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 13 | 2025-05-15 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 14 | 2025-05-15 | Services Imports | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 15 | 2025-05-15 | Net outlays, Public construction | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 16 | 2025-05-15 | Advance inventories | 2.5 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 86.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 17 | 2025-05-15 | IP | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 86.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 18 | 2025-05-15 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 2.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 19 | 2025-05-16 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 20 | 2025-05-16 | Real goods exports | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 21 | 2025-05-16 | Real goods Imports | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 22 | 2025-05-16 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 23 | 2025-05-23 | Housing permits | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 24 | 2025-05-23 | Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.3 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 25 | 2025-05-27 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | -0.3 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 26 | 2025-05-30 | GDP revision | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.0 | -0.3 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 27 | 2025-05-30 | M. PCE, Consumption | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.0 | -0.3 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 28 | 2025-05-30 | Res Invesment | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.0 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 29 | 2025-05-30 | Non-res Invesment | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 30 | 2025-05-30 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Exports | 3.0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 12.6 | 2.8 |
| 31 | 2025-05-30 | Real goods Imports, Imports | 12.0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 32 | 2025-05-30 | Government | 12.0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 33 | 2025-05-30 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Inventories | 23.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 659.4 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 34 | 2025-05-30 | Vehicle sales | 23.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 659.4 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 35 | 2025-05-30 | Vehicle sales | 23.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 659.4 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 36 | 2025-06-02 | Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | 21.6 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 571.5 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 37 | 2025-06-03 | Res. construction spending | 21.5 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 571.5 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 38 | 2025-06-03 | Non-residential construction | 21.6 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 571.5 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 39 | 2025-06-03 | Public construction | 21.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 571.5 | 0.2 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 40 | 2025-06-04 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 21.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 571.5 | 0.2 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 41 | 2025-06-04 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 11.0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 42 | 2025-06-05 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | 11.7 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | -43.7 |
| 43 | 2025-06-05 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 12.0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | -45.0 |
| 44 | 2025-06-05 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 8.1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | -27.8 |
| 45 | 2025-06-06 | Services hours | 8.1 | 3.7 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | -27.8 |
| 46 | 2025-06-06 | Gov. payroll | 8.1 | 3.7 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | -27.8 |
| 47 | 2025-06-09 | Vehicle sales | 8.1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | -27.8 |
| 48 | 2025-06-09 | Vehicle sales | 8.1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | -27.8 |
| 49 | 2025-06-12 | Services Imports | 2.6 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | 3.6 |
| 50 | 2025-06-12 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | 2.6 | 3.8 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | 3.6 |
| 51 | 2025-06-12 | Services Imports | 2.6 | 3.8 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 18.6 | 3.6 |
| 52 | 2025-06-12 | Net outlays, Public construction | 2.7 | 3.8 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 38.8 | 0.5 | 18.6 | 3.6 |
| 53 | 2025-06-12 | Advance inventories | 3.7 | 3.8 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 97.3 | 0.5 | 18.6 | 3.6 |
| 54 | 2025-06-17 | Control retail sales | 3.8 | 3.9 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 97.3 | 0.5 | 18.6 | 3.6 |
| 55 | 2025-06-17 | Real goods exports | 3.8 | 3.9 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 97.3 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 56 | 2025-06-17 | IP | 3.8 | 3.9 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 97.3 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 57 | 2025-06-17 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 3.1 | 3.9 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 58 | 2025-06-18 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 3.1 | 3.9 | 6.4 | -1.1 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 59 | 2025-06-25 | Housing permits | 3.1 | 3.9 | 6.4 | -1.1 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 60 | 2025-06-25 | Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.9 | 3.9 | 6.4 | -4.7 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 61 | 2025-06-27 | GDP revision | 3.0 | 3.9 | 6.4 | -4.7 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 62 | 2025-06-27 | M. PCE, Consumption | 2.8 | 3.7 | 6.4 | -4.7 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 63 | 2025-06-27 | Res Invesment | 2.8 | 3.7 | 6.4 | -4.8 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 64 | 2025-06-27 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 3.0 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 3.6 |
| 65 | 2025-06-27 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Exports | 2.5 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 13.4 | 3.6 |
| 66 | 2025-06-27 | Real goods Imports, Imports | 8.8 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 67 | 2025-06-27 | Government | 8.8 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 68 | 2025-06-27 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Inventories | 8.7 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 49.0 | 0.5 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 69 | 2025-06-27 | Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | 8.4 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 31.1 | 0.5 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 70 | 2025-06-27 | Vehicle sales | 8.4 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 31.1 | 0.5 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 71 | 2025-06-27 | Vehicle sales | 8.4 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 31.1 | 0.5 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 72 | 2025-07-01 | Non-residential construction | 8.4 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 31.1 | 0.5 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 73 | 2025-07-01 | Public construction | 8.3 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 74 | 2025-07-02 | Res. construction spending | 8.3 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.3 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 75 | 2025-07-03 | Services hours | 8.3 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.3 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 13.4 | -31.7 |
| 76 | 2025-07-03 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | 8.5 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.3 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 14.5 | -31.7 |
| 77 | 2025-07-03 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 8.2 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.3 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 14.5 | -30.6 |
| 78 | 2025-07-03 | Gov. payroll | 8.2 | 3.7 | 8.3 | -4.3 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 14.5 | -30.6 |
| 79 | 2025-07-04 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 8.2 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 31.1 | 0.3 | 14.5 | -30.6 |
| 80 | 2025-07-04 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 8.2 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 31.6 | 0.3 | 14.5 | -30.6 |
| 81 | 2025-07-08 | Vehicle sales | 8.2 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 31.6 | 0.3 | 14.5 | -30.6 |
| 82 | 2025-07-08 | Vehicle sales | 8.2 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 31.6 | 0.3 | 14.5 | -30.6 |
| 83 | 2025-07-16 | Services Imports | 2.1 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 31.6 | 0.3 | 14.5 | 4.3 |
| 84 | 2025-07-16 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | 2.1 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 31.6 | 0.3 | 14.5 | 4.3 |
| 85 | 2025-07-16 | Services Imports | 2.1 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 31.6 | 0.3 | 14.5 | 4.3 |
| 86 | 2025-07-16 | Net outlays, Public construction | 2.2 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 31.6 | 0.7 | 14.5 | 4.3 |
| 87 | 2025-07-16 | Advance inventories | 1.9 | 3.7 | 8.1 | -4.3 | 15.8 | 0.7 | 14.5 | 4.3 |
| 88 | 2025-07-16 | IP | 1.7 | 3.7 | 6.6 | -4.3 | 15.8 | 0.7 | 14.5 | 4.3 |
| 89 | 2025-07-17 | Control retail sales | 0.7 | 2.3 | 6.6 | -4.3 | 15.8 | 0.7 | 14.5 | 4.3 |
| 90 | 2025-07-17 | Real goods exports | 0.7 | 2.3 | 6.6 | -4.3 | 15.8 | 0.7 | 14.3 | 4.3 |
| 91 | 2025-07-17 | Real goods Imports | 0.7 | 2.3 | 6.6 | -4.3 | 15.8 | 0.7 | 14.3 | 4.3 |
| 92 | 2025-07-17 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 1.0 | 2.3 | 6.6 | -4.3 | 33.9 | 0.7 | 14.3 | 4.3 |
