A simple nowcaster based on a large range of monthly indicator models for each GDP expenditure component that combines them by weighting them based on their out-of-sample forecast performance. Nowcast expressed at an annualized rate. Does not reflect the views of any individual or institution.
| Date | Updates | GDP Nowcast | Consumption | Non-Res. Investment | Res. Investment | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-05-02 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.1 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | |
| 1 | 2025-05-02 | Services hours | 2.3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.1 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 2025-05-02 | Gov. payroll | 2.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.1 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| 3 | 2025-05-02 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 2.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.1 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| 4 | 2025-05-02 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 2.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| 5 | 2025-05-06 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | 2.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| 6 | 2025-05-06 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 2.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| 7 | 2025-05-06 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | 1.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| 8 | 2025-05-12 | Vehicle sales | 1.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| 9 | 2025-05-12 | Vehicle sales | 1.9 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| 10 | 2025-05-15 | Control retail sales | 1.3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
| 11 | 2025-05-15 | Services Imports | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 12 | 2025-05-15 | Control retail sales | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 13 | 2025-05-15 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 14 | 2025-05-15 | Services Imports | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 15 | 2025-05-15 | Net outlays, Public construction | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 80.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 16 | 2025-05-15 | Advance inventories | 2.5 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 86.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 17 | 2025-05-15 | IP | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 86.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 18 | 2025-05-15 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 2.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 19 | 2025-05-16 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 20 | 2025-05-16 | Real goods exports | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 21 | 2025-05-16 | Real goods Imports | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 22 | 2025-05-16 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 23 | 2025-05-23 | Housing permits | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 24 | 2025-05-23 | Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 2.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.3 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 25 | 2025-05-27 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | -0.3 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 26 | 2025-05-30 | GDP revision | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.0 | -0.3 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 27 | 2025-05-30 | M. PCE, Consumption | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.0 | -0.3 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 28 | 2025-05-30 | Res Invesment | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.0 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 29 | 2025-05-30 | Non-res Invesment | 1.9 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 30 | 2025-05-30 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Exports | 3.0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 12.6 | 2.8 |
| 31 | 2025-05-30 | Real goods Imports, Imports | 12.0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.8 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 32 | 2025-05-30 | Government | 12.0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 80.5 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 33 | 2025-05-30 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Inventories | 23.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 659.4 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 34 | 2025-05-30 | Vehicle sales | 23.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 659.4 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 35 | 2025-05-30 | Vehicle sales | 23.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 659.4 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
| 36 | 2025-06-02 | Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | 21.6 | 3.8 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 571.5 | 0.9 | 12.6 | -43.7 |
