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A simple nowcaster based on a large range of monthly indicator models for each GDP expenditure component that combines them by weighting them based on their out-of-sample forecast performance. Nowcast expressed at an annualized rate. Does not reflect the views of any individual or institution.
| Date | Updates | GDP Nowcast | Consumption | Non-Res. Investment | Res. Investment | Inventories ($bn) | Government | Exports | Imports | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2025-08-04 | -26.5 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.4 | 1.2 | -11.0 | 1.3 | |
| 1 | 2025-08-05 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | -26.5 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.4 | 1.2 | -11.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2025-08-05 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | -26.5 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2025-08-05 | Real goods Imports | -26.5 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.0 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 2025-08-06 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | -26.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | 1.3 |
| 5 | 2025-08-06 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | -26.4 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | -0.7 |
| 6 | 2025-08-11 | Vehicle sales | -26.3 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | -0.7 |
| 7 | 2025-08-11 | Vehicle sales | -26.1 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | -0.7 |
| 8 | 2025-08-14 | Services Imports | -26.2 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 9 | 2025-08-14 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | -26.2 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 10 | 2025-08-14 | Services Imports | -26.2 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.2 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 11 | 2025-08-14 | Net outlays, Public construction | -26.2 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1712.3 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 12 | 2025-08-14 | Advance inventories | -20.3 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 13 | 2025-08-15 | Control retail sales | -20.0 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 14 | 2025-08-15 | Real goods exports | -20.0 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 15 | 2025-08-15 | Real goods Imports | -20.0 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 16 | 2025-08-15 | IP | -20.0 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 | -1292.5 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 17 | 2025-08-15 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 0.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 18 | 2025-08-19 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -3.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 19 | 2025-08-25 | Housing permits | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -2.9 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 20 | 2025-08-25 | Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 0.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 21 | 2025-08-26 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 22 | 2025-08-29 | GDP revision | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 23 | 2025-08-29 | M. PCE, Consumption | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 24 | 2025-08-29 | Res Invesment | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 25 | 2025-08-29 | Non-res Invesment | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -11.8 | 1.0 |
| 26 | 2025-08-29 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Exports | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -8.8 | 1.0 |
| 27 | 2025-08-29 | Real goods Imports, Imports | 0.5 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.5 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 28 | 2025-08-29 | Government | 0.4 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | 20.7 | 1.4 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 29 | 2025-08-29 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Inventories | -79.5 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -7637.6 | 1.4 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 30 | 2025-08-29 | Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | -73.0 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6517.2 | 1.4 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 31 | 2025-09-02 | Res. construction spending | -73.0 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6517.2 | 1.4 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 32 | 2025-09-02 | Non-residential construction | -73.0 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6517.2 | 1.4 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 33 | 2025-09-02 | Public construction | -73.0 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6517.2 | 1.6 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 34 | 2025-09-03 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | -73.0 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6517.2 | 1.6 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 35 | 2025-09-03 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | -73.0 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -8.8 | 10.8 |
| 36 | 2025-09-04 | Real goods Imports | -73.0 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -8.8 | 10.1 |
| 37 | 2025-09-05 | Real goods exports, Services Exports | -72.8 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 10.1 |
| 38 | 2025-09-05 | Real goods Imports, Services Imports | -72.9 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 11.3 |
| 39 | 2025-09-05 | Services hours | -72.9 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 11.3 |
| 40 | 2025-09-05 | Gov. payroll | -72.9 | 1.3 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 11.3 |
| 41 | 2025-09-08 | Vehicle sales | -72.9 | 1.4 | 6.7 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 11.3 |
| 42 | 2025-09-08 | Vehicle sales | -72.9 | 1.4 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 11.3 |
| 43 | 2025-09-11 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-residential construction | -72.9 | 1.4 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -6.1 | 11.3 |
| 44 | 2025-09-11 | Services Imports | -72.3 | 1.4 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.6 | -6.1 | -0.7 |
| 45 | 2025-09-11 | Net outlays, Public construction | -72.3 | 1.4 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -6521.9 | 1.7 | -6.1 | -0.7 |
| 46 | 2025-09-11 | Advance inventories | -52.2 | 1.4 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -4052.6 | 1.7 | -6.1 | -0.7 |
| 47 | 2025-09-12 | Net outlays | -52.3 | 1.4 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -4052.6 | 1.4 | -6.1 | -0.7 |
| 48 | 2025-09-16 | Control retail sales | -52.2 | 1.5 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -4052.6 | 1.4 | -6.1 | -0.7 |
| 49 | 2025-09-16 | Real goods exports | -52.2 | 1.5 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -4052.6 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 50 | 2025-09-16 | Real goods Imports | -52.2 | 1.5 | 6.8 | -4.1 | -4052.6 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 51 | 2025-09-16 | IP | -52.4 | 1.5 | 5.0 | -4.1 | -4052.6 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 52 | 2025-09-16 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5.0 | -4.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 53 | 2025-09-17 | Housing starts, Housing permits | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5.0 | -3.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 54 | 2025-09-24 | Housing permits | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5.0 | -3.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 55 | 2025-09-24 | Houses sold, Res. construction spending | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5.0 | -2.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 56 | 2025-09-26 | GDP revision | 1.6 | 1.5 | 5.0 | -2.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 57 | 2025-09-26 | M. PCE, Consumption | 1.9 | 2.1 | 5.0 | -2.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 58 | 2025-09-26 | Res Invesment | 1.9 | 2.1 | 5.0 | -3.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 59 | 2025-09-26 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments, Non-res Invesment | 2.2 | 2.1 | 6.7 | -3.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -0.7 |
| 60 | 2025-09-26 | Real goods exports, Services Exports, Exports | 2.1 | 2.1 | 6.7 | -3.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -0.7 |
| 61 | 2025-09-26 | Real goods Imports, Imports | 2.0 | 2.1 | 6.7 | -3.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -0.2 |
| 62 | 2025-09-26 | Government | 2.0 | 2.1 | 6.7 | -3.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -0.2 |
| 63 | 2025-09-26 | Total Bus. Inventories, Advance inventories, Inventories | -56.8 | 2.1 | 6.7 | -3.1 | -4551.2 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -0.2 |
| 64 | 2025-09-26 | Nonfarm real IVA adjusted | -43.0 | 2.1 | 6.7 | -3.1 | -3190.6 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -0.2 |
| 65 | 2025-10-02 | Capital goods ord., Capital goods shipments | -43.0 | 2.1 | 6.8 | -3.1 | -3190.6 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -0.2 |
| 66 | 2025-10-06 | Vehicle sales | -43.1 | 1.9 | 6.8 | -3.1 | -3190.6 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -0.2 |
| 67 | 2025-10-06 | Vehicle sales | -43.1 | 1.9 | 6.7 | -3.1 | -3190.6 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -0.2 |